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Market Commentary
Post the Tragedies of September 11, 2001
The impact of September 11 on travel and business activity alone make it likely
that the third quarter will show negative growth, turning a de facto recession
into an actual economic decline. However, this is not an event that has the
effect of a Pearl Harbor in the sense of changing the direction of our nation.
Certainly, travel will be slowed and insurance companies will suffer significant
losses. At the same time, the rebuilding of the facilities of some of our office
infrastructure in lower Manhattan will create a demand and focus for business
spending. Similarly, excess capital will be consumed in the insurance industry.
The market has been discounting a recession for some time; now we believe that
recession is at hand. We expect economic expansion to resume beginning early in
2002 at the latest and we expect the market to anticipate this recovery prior to
year end.
Jim Landau
Berkeley Capital Management
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Copyright 2001 Berkeley Capital Management.® All rights reserved.
Berkeley Capital Management is registered with the SEC under
the Investment Advisors Act of 1940. All information provided herein
is general in nature. Nothing on this page constitutes an offer to
sell securities, provide investment services of any description, nor
constitutes investment or legal advice.
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