Weekly
Portfolio Update
Income
Equity Portfolio
APRIL
20 , 2001
The
Market This Week
The last five trading days saw the Federal Reserve rate cut. The
enthusiasm for technology stocks on Wednesday and Thursday was
to be expected although we were somewhat surprised at the extraordinary
strength of many newer names in the sector. The predominant economic
backdrop remains weak despite a few rays of strength such as the
favorable swing in the trade deficit, which should add well over
one percentage point to first quarter GDP. Employment continues
to decline and consumer confidence rolled back over, with capital
spending the weakest sector of the economy. Earnings estimates
continue to be cut, but this is all characteristic of market bottoms.
In other economic news, the consumer price index was released
before the rate cut. March CPI was up a modest 0.1% with the core
rate up 0.2%, both in line with expectations. Inflation is obviously
less of an issue these days. March industrial production was stronger
than expected, up 0.4%, whereas the consensus was for a drop of
-0.1%. Housing starts fell -1.3% in March, although that may be
related to poor weather. Significantly, the February trade deficit
fell almost 19%, mostly due to lower imports rather than more
exports. One implication of this is that overseas economies highly
dependent on export to the U.S. are in store for a slowdown, as
they increasingly become affected by our economic downturn.
The news this week was dominated by a surprise rate cut from the
Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Fed made a 50 basis point cut
between regularly scheduled meetings bringing the Federal funds
rate down to 4.5%. This means that year to date the Fed has cut
rates 200 basis points in one of the fastest declines in well
over a decade. Most observers are looking for a further 50 basis
point cut in May. The market, we believe, correctly views this
as a very positive sign for the economy later this year.
Portfolio
Activity
No trades this week.
The
opinions expressed are those of Berkeley Capital Management and
based upon sources deemed reliable. BCM shall not be held liable
for inaccurate information obtained from these sources from which
BCM could normally, reasonably depend on as accurate.Past performance
does not guarantee future results.
FOR BROKER-DEALER USE ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH CLIENTS A complete
list and description of all the firm's composites and individual
securities' transactions and returns for the past twelve months
are available upon request.